Ledger / Prediction #3426 · narrative · 24H
Will "hope" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 22% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
62 of 2673 launches in the last hour referenced "hope" (35 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.13×.
Made2026-10-13 22:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 22:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 22:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.37765447089164866,
"momentum": -2.030733180447175,
"diversity": -0.22258064516129025
},
"rawProbability": 0.22481398772059255
},
"features": {
"term": "hope",
"rank60": 9,
"share15": 0.003067484662576687,
"share60": 0.02337322363500374,
"total15": 488,
"total60": 2673,
"momentum": 0.13123926380368098,
"diversity": 0.5645161290322581,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 62,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 35
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 308,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9971430555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998809606481481
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.22481398772059255
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 22:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.051
Log loss0.255
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.000729110970689739,
"shareRatio": 0.31043332442219357,
"totalAfter": 41146,
"shareBefore": 0.002376182267157434,
"totalBefore": 42926,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 30,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 102
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 22% that "hope" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.24% → 0.07% (-69%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "hope" (24H). momentum contributed -2.03 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
44f5d4f3b389a5409c6dc0e19098bfd85d37d4f1fed59992d57197fb06bb80cdPrevious hash
0afc1cd8321397d72a135aa8f2a3244c45b2e8ee4bea6e69c22c7cd5099b5897