Ledger / Prediction #343 · narrative · 6H

Will "justice" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 9% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 2716 launches in the last hour referenced "justice" (26 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

Made2026-10-09 21:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 20:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": -3.0673936461999176,
      "diversity": -0.17441860465116282
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.08759711855917057
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "justice",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.0007451564828614009,
    "share60": 0.016010305483989695,
    "total15": 670,
    "total60": 2716,
    "momentum": 0.04654230261918221,
    "diversity": 0.6046511627906976,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 26
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 508,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949161111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991526851851852
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.08759711855917057
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.008

Log loss0.092

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002263083451202263,
  "shareRatio": 0.5013513845610645,
  "totalAfter": 14140,
  "shareBefore": 0.0045519573416569125,
  "totalBefore": 15378,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 32,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 70
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 9% that "justice" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.46% → 0.23% (-50%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "justice" (6H). momentum contributed -3.07 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash58d04f95bea97d802f10e263eafffd31855f06707d996ab5dd48f253f6b6c472

Previous hash1c88b688857014da1baaab84931ef9b8be16891598fe008776eeb4e00b7ef0a8