Ledger / Prediction #3439 · narrative · 6H

Will "musk" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

51 of 1959 launches in the last hour referenced "musk" (25 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.12×.

Made2026-10-13 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34835815804353376,
      "momentum": -2.0953014995632184,
      "diversity": -0.31176470588235294
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14917382222188086
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "musk",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.003232758620689655,
    "share60": 0.026275510204081632,
    "total15": 463,
    "total60": 1959,
    "momentum": 0.12303314362236357,
    "diversity": 0.49019607843137253,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 51,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 25
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 281,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946308333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991051388888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.14917382222188086
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 05:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.022

Log loss0.162

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0009815469179426776,
  "shareRatio": 0.17508045312023804,
  "totalAfter": 10188,
  "shareBefore": 0.00585197934595525,
  "totalBefore": 14525,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 10,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 85
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 15% that "musk" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.59% → 0.10% (-83%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "musk" (6H). momentum contributed -2.10 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashfff07dfcb2ec340f40b32b6de1a3d21eec0a7311dca5cdb135a682a1c3a9f0c6

Previous hash639deaafc219eaa8b038566cfc79ff4f5d47af8642063b5f1850728ca56987ab