Ledger / Prediction #3440 · narrative · 6H

Will "bring" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 28% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1959 launches in the last hour referenced "bring" (7 distinct creators, rank #154). Last 15m momentum 0.28×.

Made2026-10-13 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.2672350011039024,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.28055003089892544
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bring",
    "rank60": 154,
    "share15": 0.0010775862068965517,
    "share60": 0.003826530612244898,
    "total15": 463,
    "total60": 1959,
    "momentum": 0.28160919540229884,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 281,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946308333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991051388888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.28055003089892544
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 05:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.079

Log loss0.329

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0010797016097369454,
  "shareRatio": 0.5557638596625474,
  "totalAfter": 10188,
  "shareBefore": 0.0019965576592082617,
  "totalBefore": 14525,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 29
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 28% that "bring" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.20% → 0.11% (-46%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "bring" (6H). momentum contributed -1.27 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash35855415f9eed0e84a4896df3a830e1dbeb5bb968f4140594e433dc83e750eb9

Previous hashfff07dfcb2ec340f40b32b6de1a3d21eec0a7311dca5cdb135a682a1c3a9f0c6