GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3444 · narrative · 24H

Will "engineers" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

33 of 1959 launches in the last hour referenced "engineers" (33 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 2.33×.

Made2026-10-13 23:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 23:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 22:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28306044735485697,
      "momentum": 0.8470404932515662,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6022982663583916
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "engineers",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.03987068965517242,
    "share60": 0.017091836734693878,
    "total15": 463,
    "total60": 1959,
    "momentum": 2.3327328872877,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 33,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 33
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 281,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946308333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997762847222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6022982663583916
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 23:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.158
Log loss0.507
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0021264770557958583,
  "shareRatio": 1.6193991008452668,
  "totalAfter": 41383,
  "shareBefore": 0.0013089005235602095,
  "totalBefore": 42784,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 88,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 56
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 60% that "engineers" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.13% → 0.21% (+62%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "engineers" (24H). momentum contributed +0.85 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash507334a5acac955eabbe746b0211b43a14772569ec83c97b45692a0b211b0453
Previous hash2eb8877826f8519dc432ef60522617909f1d26582e5c26a36a52db25bce399ae