GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3450 · narrative · 1H

Will "agents" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 74% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

100 of 1913 launches in the last hour referenced "agents" (98 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.83×.

Made2026-10-13 23:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 00:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 23:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4493598410330986,
      "momentum": 0.6029647929856742,
      "diversity": 0.27599999999999997
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7365909622957838
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "agents",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.09595959595959595,
    "share60": 0.052507836990595615,
    "total15": 494,
    "total60": 1913,
    "momentum": 1.827529021558872,
    "diversity": 0.98,
    "launches15": 47,
    "launches60": 100,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 98
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 277,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999113888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999113888888889
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7365909622957838
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 00:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.543
Log loss1.334
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.013137151865475564,
  "shareRatio": 0.2551972281449893,
  "totalAfter": 1903,
  "shareBefore": 0.0522466039707419,
  "totalBefore": 1914,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 25,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 100
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 74% that "agents" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.22% → 1.31% (-75%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "agents" (1H). momentum contributed +0.60 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6387c6a90f93611d9c8b00fc1a7da29001507460369ad85b2f505eb3b4cbe70f
Previous hashbecec24c0de5e74f9d9a7713513b27a34315accb1eb04a0b7701ab8c97c2dd0d