Ledger / Prediction #3453 · narrative · 6H
Will "engineers" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
102 of 1913 launches in the last hour referenced "engineers" (98 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.57×.
Made2026-10-13 23:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 05:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 23:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.45233023512752557,
"momentum": 0.44822343810239895,
"diversity": 0.2529411764705883
},
"rawProbability": 0.6242076592752349
},
"features": {
"term": "engineers",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.08383838383838384,
"share60": 0.05355276907001045,
"total15": 494,
"total60": 1913,
"momentum": 1.5655284552845528,
"diversity": 0.9607843137254902,
"launches15": 41,
"launches60": 102,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 98
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 277,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999113888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999852314814814
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6242076592752349
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 05:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.390
Log loss0.979
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0012202562538133007,
"shareRatio": 0.17294843592258038,
"totalAfter": 9834,
"shareBefore": 0.0073145245559038665,
"totalBefore": 14355,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 12,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 105
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 62% that "engineers" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.73% → 0.12% (-83%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "engineers" (6H). volume contributed +0.45 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
9ea905291bd2035573e2b2bb2664d31bd6fda30f1207b16a1123623b50fb0757Previous hash
cc7522165155a891d4045abf44e309c57cafc35ac87db0d521b656a3f3764d62