GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3457 · narrative · 24H

Will "work" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

86 of 1913 launches in the last hour referenced "work" (86 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.81×.

Made2026-10-13 23:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 23:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 23:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4267364075729111,
      "momentum": 0.593550369618869,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5890751439511158
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "work",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.08181818181818182,
    "share60": 0.04519331243469175,
    "total15": 494,
    "total60": 1913,
    "momentum": 1.8104046242774565,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 40,
    "launches60": 86,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 86
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 277,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999113888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999963078703704
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5890751439511158
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 23:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.347
Log loss0.889
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.002728743570548888,
  "shareRatio": 0.5001140960758983,
  "totalAfter": 41411,
  "shareBefore": 0.005468695225408399,
  "totalBefore": 42789,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 113,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 234
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 59% that "work" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.55% → 0.27% (-50%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "work" (24H). momentum contributed +0.59 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8459ae0aa842a6a4149acbdaeb3e57e93a030e2db711c9b3559de77e402314e1
Previous hashab564a70597110fa8b5933e5338c3d844d89ea6b8388259f374066d6e38c01c2