Ledger / Prediction #3468 · narrative · 1H

Will "zero" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 16% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1939 launches in the last hour referenced "zero" (5 distinct creators, rank #185). Last 15m momentum 0.26×.

Made2026-10-14 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 01:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.3621653783201961,
      "diversity": -0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.16049472477491317
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "zero",
    "rank60": 185,
    "share15": 0.0009900990099009901,
    "share60": 0.003865979381443299,
    "total15": 504,
    "total60": 1939,
    "momentum": 0.2561056105610561,
    "diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 239,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974308333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974308333333334
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.16049472477491317
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 01:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.705

Log loss1.829

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006497341996455995,
  "shareRatio": 1.7596221959858325,
  "totalAfter": 1693,
  "shareBefore": 0.003602676273803397,
  "totalBefore": 1943,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 16% that "zero" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 0.65% (+80%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "zero" (1H). momentum contributed -1.36 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 84% and wrong on "zero". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash497152dbb88a8d7fb31ba25f44a712785fdb9f5fd0f5ec7ccc41c46c40f34bcd

Previous hashc0eb763624599e3dc9d189856c544f3cceb0c7dc64a2a5a1282537bb069f070c