Ledger / Prediction #3471 · narrative · 6H

Will "engine" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

36 of 1939 launches in the last hour referenced "engine" (36 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

Made2026-10-14 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2961121539033014,
      "momentum": -2.944574618366377,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.12521742700930608
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "engine",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.0009900990099009901,
    "share60": 0.01881443298969072,
    "total15": 504,
    "total60": 1939,
    "momentum": 0.05262444052624441,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 36,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 36
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 239,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974308333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995718055555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.12521742700930608
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.016

Log loss0.134

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0013711633793903597,
  "shareRatio": 0.45358443792970243,
  "totalAfter": 9481,
  "shareBefore": 0.0031038374717832955,
  "totalBefore": 14176,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 13,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 44
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 13% that "engine" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.31% → 0.14% (-56%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "engine" (6H). momentum contributed -2.94 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0d4b5210c47a6e2d143853afd6fb77549c85418cd65c1fa90d3cdd97f37c31fa

Previous hashf73f40105c03edb372e065a4a99d123921b378f19c8068335f4afb19489ce019