Ledger / Prediction #3472 · narrative · 6H

Will "golden" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1939 launches in the last hour referenced "golden" (5 distinct creators, rank #254). Last 15m momentum 1.05×.

Made2026-10-14 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.04660183865175312,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4856592560707384
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "golden",
    "rank60": 254,
    "share15": 0.0029702970297029703,
    "share60": 0.0028350515463917525,
    "total15": 504,
    "total60": 1939,
    "momentum": 1.0477047704770477,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 239,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974308333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995718055555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4856592560707384
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.265

Log loss0.722

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0025313785465668178,
  "shareRatio": 1.2010210891386959,
  "totalAfter": 9481,
  "shareBefore": 0.002116252821670429,
  "totalBefore": 14176,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 24,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 30
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 49% that "golden" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.21% → 0.25% (+20%). INCORRECT.

— diversity was right but too weak on "golden" (6H). diversity contributed +0.30 toward yes, the true outcome, but could not overcome the prior.

— The prior was wrong on "golden" (6H). Every active signal pointed the right way; the base assumption outweighed them.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7a9a1d1e49b59a8508970406fe0a5bb80277aec906767feb19388a7505ddc5c9

Previous hash0d4b5210c47a6e2d143853afd6fb77549c85418cd65c1fa90d3cdd97f37c31fa