Ledger / Prediction #3474 · narrative · 24H

Will "shhh" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

39 of 1939 launches in the last hour referenced "shhh" (19 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.22×.

Made2026-10-14 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3081185600543319,
      "momentum": 0.1953127951831933,
      "diversity": -0.3153846153846154
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4486871325632073
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "shhh",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.024752475247524754,
    "share60": 0.020360824742268042,
    "total15": 504,
    "total60": 1939,
    "momentum": 1.2156911893721019,
    "diversity": 0.48717948717948717,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 39,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 239,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974308333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998929513888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4486871325632073
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 00:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.201

Log loss0.595

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006777691711851278,
  "shareRatio": 0.7340062450076248,
  "totalAfter": 41312,
  "shareBefore": 0.0009282680838226079,
  "totalBefore": 43091,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 28,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 40
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 45% that "shhh" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.09% → 0.07% (-27%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "shhh" (24H). diversity contributed -0.32 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb2acc32f2c5eb5961775ff2dfb3141a260e520756e2185e94cfee039fc48b870

Previous hashc881a165caaf7d9ae9c15151791334adcc703f4c33f757cbe073f8f746ed3e30