Ledger / Prediction #3481 · narrative · 1H
Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
43 of 1897 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (32 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.09×.
Made2026-10-14 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 01:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 00:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3227643304889193,
"momentum": 0.08691558696129839,
"diversity": -0.006976744186046524
},
"rawProbability": 0.5256532481984091
},
"features": {
"term": "dog",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.025,
"share60": 0.02291886195995785,
"total15": 419,
"total60": 1897,
"momentum": 1.0908045977011493,
"diversity": 0.7441860465116279,
"launches15": 10,
"launches60": 43,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 32
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 230,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9949191666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9949191666666667
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5256532481984091
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 01:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.276
Log loss0.746
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.006082725060827251,
"shareRatio": 0.27310542672722926,
"totalAfter": 1644,
"shareBefore": 0.023121387283236993,
"totalBefore": 1903,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 10,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 44
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 53% that "dog" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.31% → 0.61% (-74%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "dog" (1H). volume contributed +0.32 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
f7f80b94678cdc35d4a951bdc128546aa6b13d3f5348287f9787f934ff628155Previous hash
9cae522cbd9e0294b379dc4b6a5c53325c82603baae5d30a73810c850819aced