Will "susan" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 30% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

39 of 1897 launches in the last hour referenced "susan" (3 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.97×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3081185600543319,
      "momentum": -0.027933240518346107,
      "diversity": -0.8076923076923077
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.30417246231439327
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "susan",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.02023809523809524,
    "share60": 0.020811380400421495,
    "total15": 419,
    "total60": 1897,
    "momentum": 0.9724532851115131,
    "diversity": 0.07692307692307693,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 39,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949191666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9949191666666667
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.30417246231439327
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005474452554744526,
  "shareRatio": 0.27837328305952064,
  "totalAfter": 1644,
  "shareBefore": 0.020493956910141883,
  "totalBefore": 1903,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 39
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity