Ledger / Prediction #3484 · narrative · 1H

Will "pays" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1897 launches in the last hour referenced "pays" (6 distinct creators, rank #202). Last 15m momentum 1.04×.

Made2026-10-14 00:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 01:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 00:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 0.04196419909903221,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5173211741584247
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pays",
    "rank60": 202,
    "share15": 0.0035714285714285713,
    "share60": 0.003424657534246575,
    "total15": 419,
    "total60": 1897,
    "momentum": 1.042857142857143,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949191666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9949191666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5173211741584247
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 01:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.233

Log loss0.659

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0036496350364963502,
  "shareRatio": 1.1574468085106384,
  "totalAfter": 1644,
  "shareBefore": 0.0031529164477141357,
  "totalBefore": 1903,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 6
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 52% that "pays" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.32% → 0.36% (+16%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "pays" (1H). diversity contributed +0.30 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash045c61a2aeb554b753a20545f8accd64ba0ad441bb7cfc3365b37231e7d3c963

Previous hash91c143344dfb23bd8afdee0c2c72cc11f0c813c1a4d6447cce990ed10305f78d