GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3486 · narrative · 6H

Will "susan" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

39 of 1897 launches in the last hour referenced "susan" (3 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.97×.

Made2026-10-14 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 06:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 00:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3081185600543319,
      "momentum": -0.027933240518346107,
      "diversity": -0.8076923076923077
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3386637030806905
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "susan",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.02023809523809524,
    "share60": 0.020811380400421495,
    "total15": 419,
    "total60": 1897,
    "momentum": 0.9724532851115131,
    "diversity": 0.07692307692307693,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 39,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949191666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991531944444444
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3386637030806905
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 06:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.115
Log loss0.414
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0013080444735120995,
  "shareRatio": 0.37612971106374943,
  "totalAfter": 9174,
  "shareBefore": 0.0035865432895775054,
  "totalBefore": 13941,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 12,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 50
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 34% that "susan" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 0.13% (-64%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "susan" (6H). diversity contributed -0.81 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc70309de00880b84c37f8842e1da2b6cd9ae6495b7165d0467fb48ae42218aa4
Previous hashf87e60f3f4b65872a4642a443745da14a6807f6aa83f04dfe72eaee056c99d79