Ledger / Prediction #3487 · narrative · 6H
Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 32% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
32 of 1897 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (18 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.49×.
Made2026-10-14 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 06:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 00:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.27844469855484394,
"momentum": -0.7201758529478646,
"diversity": -0.22499999999999998
},
"rawProbability": 0.31719083706310436
},
"features": {
"term": "uxento",
"rank60": 9,
"share15": 0.008333333333333333,
"share60": 0.017123287671232876,
"total15": 419,
"total60": 1897,
"momentum": 0.4866666666666667,
"diversity": 0.5625,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 32,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 18
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 230,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9949191666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991531944444444
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.31719083706310436
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 06:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.466
Log loss1.148
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.032047089601046436,
"shareRatio": 3.033977000877477,
"totalAfter": 9174,
"shareBefore": 0.010544437271357865,
"totalBefore": 13941,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 294,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 147
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 32% that "uxento" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.05% → 3.20% (+204%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "uxento" (6H). momentum contributed -0.72 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
e75150ddf3fc770a42847e0770e677190610af8f7bac89fd80f931c3008c9b6bPrevious hash
c70309de00880b84c37f8842e1da2b6cd9ae6495b7165d0467fb48ae42218aa4