Will "weil" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 16% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

11 of 1897 launches in the last hour referenced "weil" (4 distinct creators, rank #76). Last 15m momentum 0.20×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.11826860405464054,
      "momentum": -1.6271929480366905,
      "diversity": -0.4636363636363636
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.15699055795610234
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "weil",
    "rank60": 76,
    "share15": 0.0011904761904761906,
    "share60": 0.006059009483667018,
    "total15": 419,
    "total60": 1897,
    "momentum": 0.19648033126293998,
    "diversity": 0.36363636363636365,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 11,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949191666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991531944444444
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.15699055795610234
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00021800741225201656,
  "shareRatio": 0.3303400071081626,
  "totalAfter": 9174,
  "shareBefore": 0.0007890395237070511,
  "totalBefore": 13941,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 11
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity