GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #349 · narrative · 1H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 68% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

183 of 2648 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (143 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.63×.

Made2026-10-09 21:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 22:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 21:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.540007236061098,
      "momentum": 0.4859212647733661,
      "diversity": 0.03770491803278686
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6821420680229001
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.11261261261261261,
    "share60": 0.06927142317855794,
    "total15": 554,
    "total60": 2648,
    "momentum": 1.625671993519405,
    "diversity": 0.7814207650273224,
    "launches15": 62,
    "launches60": 183,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 143
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 482,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921291666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9921291666666666
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6821420680229001
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 22:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.101
Log loss0.383
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.09205702647657842,
  "shareRatio": 1.3301888028224362,
  "totalAfter": 2455,
  "shareBefore": 0.06917069542580885,
  "totalBefore": 2689,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 226,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 186
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 68% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 6.92% → 9.21% (+33%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.54 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash39f7b7d06eabbb2ae4703b5a07721f9c05d18276778694a56d6f5da8b0b264c3
Previous hash70ff11be0c15f282c9dec76c7595b4679b286c32907bfb5a59c437d2ef08cb73