Ledger / Prediction #349 · narrative · 1H
Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 68% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
183 of 2648 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (143 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.63×.
Made2026-10-09 21:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 22:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 21:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.540007236061098,
"momentum": 0.4859212647733661,
"diversity": 0.03770491803278686
},
"rawProbability": 0.6821420680229001
},
"features": {
"term": "quantum",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.11261261261261261,
"share60": 0.06927142317855794,
"total15": 554,
"total60": 2648,
"momentum": 1.625671993519405,
"diversity": 0.7814207650273224,
"launches15": 62,
"launches60": 183,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 143
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 482,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9921291666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9921291666666666
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6821420680229001
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-09 22:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.101
Log loss0.383
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.09205702647657842,
"shareRatio": 1.3301888028224362,
"totalAfter": 2455,
"shareBefore": 0.06917069542580885,
"totalBefore": 2689,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 226,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 186
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 68% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 6.92% → 9.21% (+33%). CORRECT.
— volume pointed the right way on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.54 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
39f7b7d06eabbb2ae4703b5a07721f9c05d18276778694a56d6f5da8b0b264c3Previous hash
70ff11be0c15f282c9dec76c7595b4679b286c32907bfb5a59c437d2ef08cb73