Ledger / Prediction #3494 · token · 6H

Will $KOVRA still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 22m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "agent".

Made2026-10-14 00:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 06:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 00:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14874997896424488
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "7RkMFMvQoVqhZC46ywVLFP9nfXqmcrfdhMyMPAEbpump",
    "name": "kovra",
    "symbol": "KOVRA",
    "hotTerms": [
      "agent"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 22,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 154,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3342.9396389261233,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 608,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.14874997896424488
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 06:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.022

Log loss0.161

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T00:14:45.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3001.476638589504,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3425.311833199674,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3342.9396389261233,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6685.879277852247
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 15% that $KOVRA would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,001, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $KOVRA (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash44b5e66b2a4dc214543d5e5d5cf1d5d03e4e7391e0f193b1d91f484847db747f

Previous hash1aedfd5756a7167c166e222f72ba92083b846fa408c85a0bba885e92c9ecc4fd