Will "rvn" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

26 of 1693 launches in the last hour referenced "rvn" (9 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.08×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24729879383810724,
      "momentum": -2.467689225788133,
      "diversity": -0.4846153846153846
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.10033534418980818
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "rvn",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.001326259946949602,
    "share60": 0.01564344746162928,
    "total15": 376,
    "total60": 1693,
    "momentum": 0.0847805415144387,
    "diversity": 0.34615384615384615,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 26,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 220,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999105555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999850925925926
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.10033534418980818
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.024139917171974164,
  "totalAfter": 8983,
  "shareBefore": 0.002269067486458791,
  "totalBefore": 13662,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 31
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity