Ledger / Prediction #3505 · narrative · 24H
Will "100x" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 40% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
22 of 1693 launches in the last hour referenced "100x" (4 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 1.30×.
Made2026-10-14 01:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 01:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 01:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.22224068113863232,
"momentum": 0.2608895554552059,
"diversity": -0.6818181818181818
},
"rawProbability": 0.4014699677164319
},
"features": {
"term": "100x",
"rank60": 10,
"share15": 0.017241379310344827,
"share60": 0.013282172373081463,
"total15": 376,
"total60": 1693,
"momentum": 1.2980842911877395,
"diversity": 0.18181818181818182,
"launches15": 6,
"launches60": 22,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 4
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 220,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999105555555555,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999962731481481
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4014699677164319
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-15 01:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.161
Log loss0.513
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0015002661762570778,
"shareRatio": 0.45574309225250237,
"totalAfter": 41326,
"shareBefore": 0.0033068936012765073,
"totalBefore": 43243,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 62,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 143
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 40% that "100x" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.33% → 0.15% (-55%). CORRECT.
— diversity pointed the right way on "100x" (24H). diversity contributed -0.68 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
4a71c5a030f94f77a710c17f3b71d1d2f48f6aa8e79f80863e4d67451871de4aPrevious hash
080afaa7bcce1975d66b5830dce0a5acd3dc7b03e1fbe974de3a0bb26886c353