Will "neverdoom" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
19 of 1693 launches in the last hour referenced "neverdoom" (8 distinct creators, rank #20). Last 15m momentum 4.49×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.200250160009851,
"momentum": 1.502602687763989,
"diversity": -0.39473684210526316
},
"rawProbability": 0.5876012869158805
},
"features": {
"term": "neverdoom",
"rank60": 20,
"share15": 0.05172413793103448,
"share60": 0.011511216056670602,
"total15": 376,
"total60": 1693,
"momentum": 4.493368700265252,
"diversity": 0.42105263157894735,
"launches15": 19,
"launches60": 19,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 8
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 220,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999105555555555,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999962731481481
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5876012869158805
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0,
"shareRatio": 0.026830413841326804,
"totalAfter": 41326,
"shareBefore": 0.0004393774714982772,
"totalBefore": 43243,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 0,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 19
}Predicted 59% that "neverdoom" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.04% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "neverdoom" (24H). momentum contributed +1.50 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
cd1789446410e715a0c68a5cfe9c19e599efd1c65fa63718ab34df7cf91c0118a1223794a06093edc4ea61a065416c1c3b5bf7a0e91591a03ae4149d3d779a53