Will "floyd" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 24% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

20 of 1637 launches in the last hour referenced "floyd" (11 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.45×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2079441541679836,
      "momentum": -0.7964726599023284,
      "diversity": -0.23999999999999994
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.24443276218154206
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "floyd",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.0056433408577878106,
    "share60": 0.012515262515262516,
    "total15": 442,
    "total60": 1637,
    "momentum": 0.45091669878324064,
    "diversity": 0.55,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 20,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 194,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965986111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965986111111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.24443276218154206
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001893939393939394,
  "shareRatio": 0.177194737247057,
  "totalAfter": 1584,
  "shareBefore": 0.012165450121654502,
  "totalBefore": 1644,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 20
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity