Ledger / Prediction #3517 · narrative · 6H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 49% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
23 of 1637 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (17 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.18×.
Made2026-10-14 01:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 07:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 01:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.22890844552425738,
"momentum": 0.16556409376003073,
"diversity": -0.013043478260869623
},
"rawProbability": 0.4917508342617535
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.016930022573363433,
"share60": 0.014346764346764346,
"total15": 442,
"total60": 1637,
"momentum": 1.1800585946880555,
"diversity": 0.7391304347826086,
"launches15": 7,
"launches60": 23,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 17
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 194,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9965986111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994331018518519
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4917508342617535
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 07:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.258
Log loss0.710
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.03353797180536607,
"shareRatio": 1.9937113211594255,
"totalAfter": 8796,
"shareBefore": 0.016812373907195696,
"totalBefore": 13383,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 295,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 225
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 49% that "inu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.68% → 3.35% (+99%). INCORRECT.
— diversity misled on "inu" (6H). diversity contributed -0.01 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
d133b7e8ac200624ddacdaf6936741d72430ad0d05cc4726f0f309e4669bb3baPrevious hash
7b5827d14a731575c92830f84390d9eae233e40937bcb67200e5c7e9e35e69d0