GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3517 · narrative · 6H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

23 of 1637 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (17 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.18×.

Made2026-10-14 01:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 07:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 01:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22890844552425738,
      "momentum": 0.16556409376003073,
      "diversity": -0.013043478260869623
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4917508342617535
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.016930022573363433,
    "share60": 0.014346764346764346,
    "total15": 442,
    "total60": 1637,
    "momentum": 1.1800585946880555,
    "diversity": 0.7391304347826086,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 23,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 17
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 194,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965986111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994331018518519
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4917508342617535
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 07:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.258
Log loss0.710
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.03353797180536607,
  "shareRatio": 1.9937113211594255,
  "totalAfter": 8796,
  "shareBefore": 0.016812373907195696,
  "totalBefore": 13383,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 295,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 225
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 49% that "inu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.68% → 3.35% (+99%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "inu" (6H). diversity contributed -0.01 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd133b7e8ac200624ddacdaf6936741d72430ad0d05cc4726f0f309e4669bb3ba
Previous hash7b5827d14a731575c92830f84390d9eae233e40937bcb67200e5c7e9e35e69d0