GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3522 · narrative · 24H

Will "unicorn" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

21 of 1637 launches in the last hour referenced "unicorn" (13 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 2.15×.

Made2026-10-14 01:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 01:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 01:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.21526267879339842,
      "momentum": 0.7653372035425174,
      "diversity": -0.1571428571428571
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5279031073732546
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "unicorn",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.028216704288939052,
    "share60": 0.013125763125763126,
    "total15": 442,
    "total60": 1637,
    "momentum": 2.1497191453619613,
    "diversity": 0.6190476190476191,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 21,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 13
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 194,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965986111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998582754629629
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5279031073732546
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 01:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.223
Log loss0.639
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.002346849898383819,
  "shareRatio": 2.151903601939065,
  "totalAfter": 41332,
  "shareBefore": 0.0010846737901271607,
  "totalBefore": 43331,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 97,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 47
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "unicorn" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.11% → 0.23% (+116%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "unicorn" (24H). momentum contributed +0.77 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashcba70616a042f7a07430e9b32a709f6896a7b1a908611be7df536ca75b9d8c27
Previous hashb2d0c5419f4d7bf93b444ee3d7069cad76bb72354ee3e95e555ff634f9b13684