Will "kinetic" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

18 of 1637 launches in the last hour referenced "kinetic" (8 distinct creators, rank #15). Last 15m momentum 1.70×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.19214007681930967,
      "momentum": 0.5299569257798706,
      "diversity": -0.3666666666666667
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.46946683086160584
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "kinetic",
    "rank60": 15,
    "share15": 0.019187358916478554,
    "share60": 0.011294261294261294,
    "total15": 442,
    "total60": 1637,
    "momentum": 1.6988591300103715,
    "diversity": 0.4444444444444444,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 18,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 194,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965986111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998582754629629
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.46946683086160584
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005080809058356722,
  "shareRatio": 0.5706281216436924,
  "totalAfter": 41332,
  "shareBefore": 0.0009000484641480696,
  "totalBefore": 43331,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 21,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 39
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity