Ledger / Prediction #3539 · narrative · 24H
Will "dex" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
25 of 1747 launches in the last hour referenced "dex" (14 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 3.54×.
Made2026-10-14 02:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 02:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 01:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.24141568686511503,
"momentum": 1.2650148999067052,
"diversity": -0.22799999999999992
},
"rawProbability": 0.5839998957330343
},
"features": {
"term": "dex",
"rank60": 8,
"share15": 0.05168776371308017,
"share60": 0.014588100686498856,
"total15": 473,
"total60": 1747,
"momentum": 3.5431455282534956,
"diversity": 0.56,
"launches15": 24,
"launches60": 25,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 14
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 228,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.993535,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999730625
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5839998957330343
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-15 02:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.173
Log loss0.538
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0034769171334749853,
"shareRatio": 1.6255687717164888,
"totalAfter": 41416,
"shareBefore": 0.002134839198402314,
"totalBefore": 43563,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 144,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 93
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 58% that "dex" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.21% → 0.35% (+63%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "dex" (24H). momentum contributed +1.27 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
0d9e001757406fd07ef7f179c7ac45337192ac7f4d846e580ff8c09e65db7002Previous hash
cbb6fb45a37b76ec2ed1cb9f33bc860c6be9a7c8c799c81f865403be7808ca57