Ledger / Prediction #3540 · narrative · 24H

Will "send" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1747 launches in the last hour referenced "send" (7 distinct creators, rank #98). Last 15m momentum 1.52×.

Made2026-10-14 02:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 01:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": 0.4177170395195015,
      "diversity": 0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5047770526290695
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "send",
    "rank60": 98,
    "share15": 0.007383966244725738,
    "share60": 0.004862700228832952,
    "total15": 473,
    "total60": 1747,
    "momentum": 1.5184909406800695,
    "diversity": 0.875,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 228,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.993535,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999730625
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5047770526290695
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 02:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.245

Log loss0.684

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004008112806644775,
  "shareRatio": 1.0332220043028804,
  "totalAfter": 41416,
  "shareBefore": 0.003879438973440764,
  "totalBefore": 43563,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 166,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 169
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "send" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.39% → 0.40% (+3%). PARTIAL.

— "send" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd619d5d9089365cbd50f5c31a13d19c88fe592145f0e54df30a68d007bd5aba7

Previous hash0d9e001757406fd07ef7f179c7ac45337192ac7f4d846e580ff8c09e65db7002