Ledger / Prediction #3545 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 73% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
54 of 1584 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (38 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 2.69×.
Made2026-10-14 02:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 03:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 02:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.35693192011952607,
"momentum": 0.9911809128635629,
"diversity": -0.05555555555555553
},
"rawProbability": 0.7295927365071526
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.09264705882352942,
"share60": 0.03438485804416404,
"total15": 339,
"total60": 1584,
"momentum": 2.6944144630329196,
"diversity": 0.7037037037037037,
"launches15": 31,
"launches60": 54,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 38
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 181,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9988172222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988172222222222
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7295927365071526
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 03:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.073
Log loss0.315
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.04265658747300216,
"shareRatio": 1.247741079429836,
"totalAfter": 1852,
"shareBefore": 0.03409090909090909,
"totalBefore": 1584,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 79,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 54
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 73% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.41% → 4.27% (+25%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.99 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
8a3defb592900ea1c5cb0686e678492e249292f0cb199e39cdde495c03db0413Previous hash
1a24e284bb2b66bc16e41d668c3283e811bf02d3f8c85a3c1e47169056dc70d7