Ledger / Prediction #3547 · narrative · 1H

Will "onion" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 1584 launches in the last hour referenced "onion" (30 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.84×.

Made2026-10-14 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 03:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 02:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": -0.17139633799321394,
      "diversity": -0.02195121951219514
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4556847290680187
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "onion",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.022058823529411766,
    "share60": 0.026182965299684544,
    "total15": 339,
    "total60": 1584,
    "momentum": 0.842487597448618,
    "diversity": 0.7317073170731707,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 181,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988172222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988172222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4556847290680187
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 03:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.208

Log loss0.608

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0010799136069114472,
  "shareRatio": 0.051528293421933824,
  "totalAfter": 1852,
  "shareBefore": 0.025883838383838384,
  "totalBefore": 1584,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 46% that "onion" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.59% → 0.11% (-96%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "onion" (1H). momentum contributed -0.17 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash161762cc4882704b7d778c46fd4b9bb0100ef7e9d6ad3a512cc397c3c47870f5

Previous hash84a676c277a74406a23ff2c3115a0e16fda95eb65aa662145a2c1d0c3a56ca65