Will "onion" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 1584 launches in the last hour referenced "onion" (30 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.84×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": -0.17139633799321394,
      "diversity": -0.02195121951219514
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4466021066674096
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "onion",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.022058823529411766,
    "share60": 0.026182965299684544,
    "total15": 339,
    "total60": 1584,
    "momentum": 0.842487597448618,
    "diversity": 0.7317073170731707,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 181,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988172222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998028703703704
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4466021066674096
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0008451044307618013,
  "shareRatio": 0.2711279691435951,
  "totalAfter": 8283,
  "shareBefore": 0.0032992677235052707,
  "totalBefore": 12427,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity