Will "internet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 33% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1584 launches in the last hour referenced "internet" (5 distinct creators, rank #177). Last 15m momentum 0.42×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": -0.8585012040971967,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.3338215869079939
},
"features": {
"term": "internet",
"rank60": 177,
"share15": 0.0014705882352941176,
"share60": 0.003470031545741325,
"total15": 339,
"total60": 1584,
"momentum": 0.42379679144385024,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 181,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9988172222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998028703703704
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.3338215869079939
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0063986478329107815,
"shareRatio": 0.9848210609260811,
"totalAfter": 8283,
"shareBefore": 0.006518065502534804,
"totalBefore": 12427,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 53,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 81
}Predicted 33% that "internet" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.65% → 0.64% (-2%). PARTIAL.
— "internet" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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