Ledger / Prediction #3554 · narrative · 24H
Will "tor" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
24 of 1584 launches in the last hour referenced "tor" (16 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 2.00×.
Made2026-10-14 02:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 02:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 02:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.23529238768707678,
"momentum": 0.6920962083139705,
"diversity": -0.10000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.528392996167465
},
"features": {
"term": "tor",
"rank60": 9,
"share15": 0.030882352941176472,
"share60": 0.015457413249211356,
"total15": 339,
"total60": 1584,
"momentum": 1.9978991596638658,
"diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
"launches15": 10,
"launches60": 24,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 16
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 181,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9988172222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999507175925926
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.528392996167465
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-15 02:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.279
Log loss0.752
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0004103306782524741,
"shareRatio": 0.6442840707039013,
"totalAfter": 41430,
"shareBefore": 0.000644107565963516,
"totalBefore": 43471,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 17,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 28
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 53% that "tor" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.06% → 0.04% (-36%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "tor" (24H). momentum contributed +0.69 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
c845afc0b05bfff6c8fc0cc7e7020bbcf0a39957f19dca3d09b73b0b4e599ed9Previous hash
4aed16fcc2eb75dd2530490d70328040865cad9ded151546cb86fb9b62384bbe