Ledger / Prediction #3558 · token · 6H

Will $PEBBLE still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 24m ago. website. No hot term. Creator launched 115 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-14 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 02:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.030935134330467174
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "CJiRfjhgkzpsdhbt3epecHaZMEUzqq536xfQFcrVfomo",
    "name": "pebble",
    "symbol": "PEBBLE",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 24,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 13,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3023.907744424424,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 115
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 451,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.030935134330467174
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 08:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.031

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T02:35:12.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2994.5162617400783,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3025.258861935944,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3023.907744424424,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6047.815488848848
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $PEBBLE would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,995, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $PEBBLE (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash20c9edcbb879c5564864ed39f47e6686555cf7de17475099b092e1ec04f88ee1

Previous hash5b84b3500bdeab77d8ef919051038dc7f23affbee017ecac17f08b52294af424