Ledger / Prediction #3561 · narrative · 1H
Will "space" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 65% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
81 of 1564 launches in the last hour referenced "space" (50 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.91×.
Made2026-10-14 03:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 04:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 02:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4177516863357507,
"momentum": 0.6466446481376439,
"diversity": -0.1592592592592593
},
"rawProbability": 0.6468307067520327
},
"features": {
"term": "space",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.09942084942084942,
"share60": 0.05207667731629393,
"total15": 517,
"total60": 1564,
"momentum": 1.9091242864248998,
"diversity": 0.6172839506172839,
"launches15": 51,
"launches60": 81,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 50
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 233,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9957569444444444,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957569444444444
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6468307067520327
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 04:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.418
Log loss1.041
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.04256559766763848,
"shareRatio": 0.8308915011368999,
"totalAfter": 1715,
"shareBefore": 0.05126582278481013,
"totalBefore": 1580,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 73,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 81
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 65% that "space" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.13% → 4.26% (-17%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "space" (1H). momentum contributed +0.65 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
0ed82e1982d6e8c5309dbf93aa2d2f86c7497437b11953a1f51403c1df2a37c7Previous hash
d9c4340f01a0a3f2bfbb60c215700061988bbbf4e652f3ad2e37fcaaa3d77e5b