Will "crypto" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 32% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

14 of 1564 launches in the last hour referenced "crypto" (11 distinct creators, rank #31). Last 15m momentum 0.52×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1544429125771737,
      "momentum": -0.6521920568376031,
      "diversity": 0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3197562938571188
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "crypto",
    "rank60": 31,
    "share15": 0.004826254826254826,
    "share60": 0.00926517571884984,
    "total15": 517,
    "total60": 1564,
    "momentum": 0.5209026760750899,
    "diversity": 0.7857142857142857,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 14,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 233,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957569444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957569444444444
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3197562938571188
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006997084548104956,
  "shareRatio": 0.7942488545936822,
  "totalAfter": 1715,
  "shareBefore": 0.008860759493670886,
  "totalBefore": 1580,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 12,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 14
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity