Ledger / Prediction #3570 · narrative · 24H

Will "acc" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

38 of 1564 launches in the last hour referenced "acc" (28 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 2.39×.

Made2026-10-14 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3042222370938428,
      "momentum": 0.8727343030343979,
      "diversity": -0.015789473684210575
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.569689279073266
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "acc",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.05888030888030888,
    "share60": 0.024600638977635782,
    "total15": 517,
    "total60": 1564,
    "momentum": 2.3934463220177506,
    "diversity": 0.7368421052631579,
    "launches15": 30,
    "launches60": 38,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 28
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 233,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957569444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998232060185185
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.569689279073266
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.325

Log loss0.843

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002862132531289415,
  "shareRatio": 0.924492388342351,
  "totalAfter": 41228,
  "shareBefore": 0.0030975380308836016,
  "totalBefore": 43583,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 118,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 135
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 57% that "acc" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.31% → 0.29% (-8%). PARTIAL.

— "acc" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6bc84e73869f4918aa4d2bbe9c8455c4bd392e72709df811274cc48ed243c395

Previous hash68b8560325565f543e62154841bcfbbf81336ea38f4fd529710310c572cdbf74