Will "style" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1564 launches in the last hour referenced "style" (4 distinct creators, rank #136). Last 15m momentum 1.24×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": 0.21836266571386795,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.42419681030937234
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "style",
    "rank60": 136,
    "share15": 0.006756756756756757,
    "share60": 0.005431309904153354,
    "total15": 517,
    "total60": 1564,
    "momentum": 1.244038155802862,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 233,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957569444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998232060185185
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.42419681030937234
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004220432715630155,
  "shareRatio": 1.101298137124897,
  "totalAfter": 41228,
  "shareBefore": 0.003831769267833788,
  "totalBefore": 43583,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 174,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 167
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity