Ledger / Prediction #3576 · token · 6H

Will $PILOT still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 11m ago. X link, website. No hot term.

Made2026-10-14 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 09:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11461549863791237
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "HXdCTKND2m3MN4NSmMycKeuEZa7rXkiHimpksuEQhk58",
    "name": "Pilotlight",
    "symbol": "PILOT",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 11,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 64,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3072.221159944137,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 541,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.11461549863791237
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 09:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.013

Log loss0.122

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": null,
  "marketCapUsd": 3072.221159944137,
  "athMarketCapUsd": null,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3072.221159944137,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6144.442319888274
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 11% that $PILOT would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,072, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $PILOT (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash52f96eb98bbaba8034de18e8e10a1ffeee26ac26ae8e140e9ce6d22579d1afe9

Previous hash94a8277dc5f940cd86cd1354d14109bb4b2e681f8b868d334cf793c9e22090f6