Will "altai" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 71% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

99 of 1846 launches in the last hour referenced "altai" (32 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 3.58×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4478522906550734,
      "momentum": 1.2752112147176773,
      "diversity": -0.5121212121212121
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.713192946389704
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "altai",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.1928294573643411,
    "share60": 0.053871142393069844,
    "total15": 515,
    "total60": 1846,
    "momentum": 3.5794573643410854,
    "diversity": 0.32323232323232326,
    "launches15": 99,
    "launches60": 99,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 312,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929386111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9929386111111111
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.713192946389704
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03151515151515152,
  "shareRatio": 0.5921947715561454,
  "totalAfter": 1650,
  "shareBefore": 0.05345572354211663,
  "totalBefore": 1852,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 52,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 99
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity