GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3582 · narrative · 6H

Will "justice" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 1846 launches in the last hour referenced "justice" (23 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 2.37×.

Made2026-10-14 03:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 09:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 03:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": 0.8637037921535502,
      "diversity": -0.22682926829268285
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5906725250795453
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "justice",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.05329457364341085,
    "share60": 0.022468868435300486,
    "total15": 515,
    "total60": 1846,
    "momentum": 2.3719295787802372,
    "diversity": 0.5609756097560976,
    "launches15": 27,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 312,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929386111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988231018518519
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5906725250795453
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 09:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.349
Log loss0.893
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.01063973063973064,
  "shareRatio": 0.9146794497839942,
  "totalAfter": 7425,
  "shareBefore": 0.011662059433310298,
  "totalBefore": 11576,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 79,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 135
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 59% that "justice" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.17% → 1.06% (-9%). PARTIAL.

— "justice" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb45ad8ae831f24dcccc3da84b6af4afa449d44a6d941d6c31ac74d77e859e7b4
Previous hash522f4e05e360749b583ece49470b7c0a3d4958e0d71a26c967f5ce57531c5a3b