Ledger / Prediction #3586 · narrative · 24H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

81 of 1846 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (57 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.46×.

Made2026-10-14 03:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 03:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 03:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4177516863357507,
      "momentum": -0.774016548365662,
      "diversity": -0.05555555555555553
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3761527563478266
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.020348837209302327,
    "share60": 0.044125609095831075,
    "total15": 515,
    "total60": 1846,
    "momentum": 0.461157083749465,
    "diversity": 0.7037037037037037,
    "launches15": 10,
    "launches60": 81,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 57
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 312,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929386111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997057754629629
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3761527563478266
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 03:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.142

Log loss0.472

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.044587075361187035,
  "shareRatio": 0.910660516646444,
  "totalAfter": 40976,
  "shareBefore": 0.04896309395310383,
  "totalBefore": 43543,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1827,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 2132
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 38% that "cat" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 4.90% → 4.46% (-9%). PARTIAL.

— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash913c1a3be53619d91289ff04246d159aaf38370e1a9fca726e71845bec14c031

Previous hashb4d904482078cef0166f9a484f197b7e34a3868d28b6cfa7b4d8b53a0d945301