Ledger / Prediction #359 · token · 1H

Will $PINKIE still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 30m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "launchpad".

Made2026-10-09 21:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 22:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 21:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14874997896424488
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "BNa2ubrrtSBxYNwrNnfDm62evTrP1aKmq7S9gnUjpump",
    "name": "Pinkie Pad",
    "symbol": "PINKIE",
    "hotTerms": [
      "launchpad"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 30,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 243,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3110.190635306668,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 889,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.14874997896424488
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 22:31 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.022

Log loss0.161

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T21:06:32.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3047.250700803187,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4370.987107175458,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3110.190635306668,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6220.381270613336
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 15% that $PINKIE would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,047, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $PINKIE (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash91db3d3d149dad3b1eb8e55270012198aa40457618f121857958e7cdbb900c3f

Previous hashb17776ff10c9f70b553d64e5f3e9b2f8752204355605e791f747741a0268d293