Ledger / Prediction #3593 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 32% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

99 of 1710 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (23 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.76×.

Made2026-10-14 04:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 03:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4478522906550734,
      "momentum": -0.2802683753063508,
      "diversity": -0.6212121212121212
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3200312474088345
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.04393939393939394,
    "share60": 0.0581531268264173,
    "total15": 329,
    "total60": 1710,
    "momentum": 0.7555809349779199,
    "diversity": 0.23232323232323232,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 99,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 231,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982616666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982616666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3200312474088345
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 05:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.102

Log loss0.386

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.044029352901934625,
  "shareRatio": 0.7645829145728643,
  "totalAfter": 1499,
  "shareBefore": 0.05772594752186589,
  "totalBefore": 1715,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 66,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 99
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 32% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.77% → 4.40% (-24%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). diversity contributed -0.62 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashde416ffef0e62e925de42bb7dc9902881ad01e9a1d3077b8b189a014f3fa32f9

Previous hash5809433c458e3dc1e5bba70a79c4d8f973fd390f048d5fc51465ec07a8d5eebb