Ledger / Prediction #36 · narrative · 1H

Will "viewers" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 77% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1181 launches in the last hour referenced "viewers" (4 distinct creators, rank #192). Last 15m momentum 4.18×.

Made2026-10-09 07:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 07:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 1.429516300322806,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7666545437645796
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "viewers",
    "rank60": 192,
    "share15": 0.019434628975265017,
    "share60": 0.004653130287648054,
    "total15": 282,
    "total60": 1181,
    "momentum": 4.176678445229682,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 134,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963241666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963241666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7666545437645796
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 08:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.588

Log loss1.455

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.08653495662316833,
  "totalAfter": 1246,
  "shareBefore": 0.0042158516020236085,
  "totalBefore": 1186,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 77% that "viewers" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.42% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "viewers" (1H). momentum contributed +1.43 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 77% and wrong on "viewers". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash214722da7597f77051927ff43c0621405cf7d0b6d10cf3fb2a1dbbcb524aafe7

Previous hasheb9f2fe1340132c18345ad050c81125139797b2d90de857a894289e663f28682