Ledger / Prediction #3607 · token · 1H

Will $MOODENG still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 29m ago. website. Rides hot term "zoo". Creator launched 3 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-14 04:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 03:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05000000000000001
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "9ftr6GeiTXX3FB28WTuD93xkiz8fZCF3vMUf6iMmzupa",
    "name": "Moodeng",
    "symbol": "MOODENG",
    "hotTerms": [
      "zoo"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 29,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 190,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3048.138145277616,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 3
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 555,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.05000000000000001
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 05:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T03:41:21.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3019.958541796844,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3044.7594268406324,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3048.138145277616,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6096.276290555232
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $MOODENG would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,020, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $MOODENG (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash41686eaa49591393c4d2db238aae708731ba34ef103aace1f21f4b5b706d536f

Previous hash5d72b1c592efa7892938193b597cb7c03443a1570a7142a164e0e713d93a293a