Ledger / Prediction #361 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

107 of 2460 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (72 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.22×.

Made2026-10-09 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4595086383041708,
      "momentum": 0.2022148659320987,
      "diversity": -0.09252336448598135
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5668965299122763
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.05347091932457786,
    "share60": 0.043681430312880944,
    "total15": 532,
    "total60": 2460,
    "momentum": 1.2241109996073127,
    "diversity": 0.6728971962616822,
    "launches15": 28,
    "launches60": 107,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 72
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 455,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946558333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9946558333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5668965299122763
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 23:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.188

Log loss0.568

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.06375711574952561,
  "shareRatio": 1.4575533380418593,
  "totalAfter": 2635,
  "shareBefore": 0.043671653861706426,
  "totalBefore": 2473,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 168,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 108
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 57% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.37% → 6.38% (+46%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). volume contributed +0.46 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8938e5d01e64839c0913765fce2ff2e86c516978f27127a26a2bb562a03c7ed8

Previous hasha69d8d065faef4118398d18577b3e4d23dfda142ca255fe6d837a61b6d217901