Ledger / Prediction #3611 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
52 of 1646 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (44 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.34×.
Made2026-10-14 04:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 05:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 04:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.351270870922099,
"momentum": 0.28944284203557835,
"diversity": 0.11538461538461536
},
"rawProbability": 0.612088184035141
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.0425764192139738,
"share60": 0.031876138433515486,
"total15": 457,
"total60": 1646,
"momentum": 1.335683094198378,
"diversity": 0.8461538461538461,
"launches15": 19,
"launches60": 52,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 44
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 201,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9954830555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954830555555556
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.612088184035141
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 05:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.150
Log loss0.491
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.03164029975020816,
"shareRatio": 1.00726566833056,
"totalAfter": 1201,
"shareBefore": 0.03151515151515152,
"totalBefore": 1650,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 38,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 52
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 61% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.15% → 3.16% (+0%). PARTIAL.
— "inu" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
f69a01bd27fbb0ed3d79b2eb954b7e07ea7bb06283f9dddb225797ed0719c63ePrevious hash
3653767ed4f00cd63c4b96854ef474e6f703ad7d5487ce192c28eb0120da889d