Ledger / Prediction #3612 · narrative · 1H

Will "lenietzsche" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 80% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

11 of 1646 launches in the last hour referenced "lenietzsche" (11 distinct creators, rank #68). Last 15m momentum 3.60×.

Made2026-10-14 04:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 04:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.11826860405464054,
      "momentum": 1.2798415460634553,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.8018838266530876
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "lenietzsche",
    "rank60": 68,
    "share15": 0.025109170305676855,
    "share60": 0.006982392228293868,
    "total15": 457,
    "total60": 1646,
    "momentum": 3.596069868995633,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 11,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 201,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954830555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954830555555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.8018838266530876
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.643

Log loss1.619

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.059719308399045073,
  "totalAfter": 1201,
  "shareBefore": 0.006666666666666667,
  "totalBefore": 1650,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 11
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 80% that "lenietzsche" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.67% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "lenietzsche" (1H). momentum contributed +1.28 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 80% and wrong on "lenietzsche". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd420336663ab68bbf5db372b46ce4507650316756dfcc8a1a3fd70bcc258601b

Previous hashf69a01bd27fbb0ed3d79b2eb954b7e07ea7bb06283f9dddb225797ed0719c63e